Agribusiness News December 2024 – Sheep & Turkeys

Christmas Costs

The American Farm Bureau Federation has recently published their findings for the cost of a thanksgiving dinner for 2024.  This is done annually by deploying volunteer shoppers over 50 states to buy specific groceries.  The results have found a classic thanksgiving feast for 10 people has decreased in cost to $58.08 – a 5% reduction compared to last year.  However, this shows an increase of 19% compared to five years ago.  Interestingly, the cost of the traditional turkey has decreased by some 6% on the year, with this centre piece accounting for 44.2% of the meal cost.

Figures from USDA show the US turkey flock to be at the lowest since 1985, with 205 million turkeys recorded this year.  Avian Influenza is thought to be the cause for this.  Usually when supply is low, demand and price increases, however, it is thought that shoppers are looking to other meats for their thanksgiving celebrations e.g. lamb and ham.  Also in the survey, vegetables and dairy showed a decrease in price, while processed foods such as rolls, and stuffing showed an increase compared to 2023.

So why am I talking turkey?  Looking at these stats indicates that shoppers are looking for  diversification in their Christmas centre piece.  In 2022, American consumers only spent 6.7% of their total expenditure on food, the UK marginally higher at 8.5%.  But on Christmas day, shoppers are happy to splash out, and they want quality, while many are also thinking of environmental sustainability.

Lamb sales have a huge opportunity for Christmas.  In 2023, we saw lamb roasts increasing in volume in the UK by 32.8% compared to 2022.  As wages increase and interest rates fall, shoppers will be looking for quality this Christmas.  Although, lamb roasts at ~£13/kg are a premium price compared to turkey.

Domestic Drivers

We know the national flock has decreased, which has resulted in less lambs on the ground.  However, AHDB have recently shown DEFRA forecasts of ~ 11.3 million lambs slaughtered in 2024  – own 8% on 2023.  With a slow start to marketing of the 2024 lamb crop, it is thought there will be more of a carry over into 2025, than we saw in 2024.  We will see a rise of demand as we progress into February with Ramadan starting on the 28^th of February 2025.  Further afield, lamb continues to be at a competitive price point for trading with the EU.  With this in mind, it is clear market signals are looking positive for the coming months.

Cull Ewes

Cull ewes have seen a recent upturn in price, with less numbers coming forward.  The price point is currently sitting ~£20/head ahead of last November.  With a decreasing national flock, there are less ewes on the market, DEFRA have forecasted this decrease in cull sales for 2024 to be 12.1% behind 2023.

2025….

Next year looks very positive – with less lambs in the system, a growing world population and recovering economy.  The UK 2025 lamb crop is set to be lower again, due to less breeding ewes.  As scanning starts in the turn of the year, we will have a keen eye on losses from Schmallenburg and Bluetongue.

Have a lovely Christmas, find time to put your feet up and enjoy your festive feasts!

Kirsten Williams, 07798617293

 

Week ending	GB deadweight (p/kg)				Scottish auction (p/kg)				Ewes (£/hd)
	16.5 – 21.5kg								Scottish
	R3L	Change on week	Diff over R2	Diff over R3H	Med.	Change on week	Diff over stan.	Diff over heavy	All
2-Nov-24	616.9	-4.6	-3	0.1	278.1	3.1	17.1	8.3	89.06
9-Nov-24	626.7	9.8	-5.3	-4	295.5	17.4	20.5	5.7	90.25
16-Nov-24	651.5	24.8	-1.9	-2.1	302.5	7	16.9	9.1	91.71